Handicapping the local ANC races

Ok, we all know they’re coming in seven days and it’s pretty clear where a lot of regular readers/posters fall with their preferences…. BUT. What are the odds in these local ANC races? Anyone want to venture, with one week before the election, who’s going to be winning and what the vote split is going to look like?

The two races I’m personally most intrigued by are Kevin Chapple vs Leroy Thorpe (that’s the only website @ Thorpe I’m aware of. He definitely should have launched his own) and Kris Hammond vs Cleopatra Jones (the ANC Comish is in no way affiliated with that movie, to my knowledge). It’s clear that the incumbents are being challenged by individuals with new approaches, abundant energy and a different perspective on things.

I think the results of the election will be interesting because if Leroy and Cleo are defeated, it may have signaled this part of Shaw has already moved past a tipping point, of sorts. If Kris and Kevin can’t quite do it this time, what does that mean for the ‘hood? Well, obviously it means more of the same from the same ANC Commissioners. Which isn’t great. And it probably means that the vocal newcomers’ bark is less than their bite for the time being. Or it might mean that the “old timers” fears about gentrification may have been exaggerated. Or it could mean that the incumbents are the better candidates. Which I personally do not believe.

So, what are your best guesses for any of the local races? Who’s going to win and what is the vote split going to look like?