History research and gentrification

Yes, we have gentrification on the brain.

Anywho. I’m doing some historical research on the neighborhood looking at housing and other demographic trends. Looking at the census, things I noticed from one census to another….. people move. There is a very good chance the people in a certain house won’t be there in the next 10 years. I’m not in the same place I was 10 years ago. 10 years ago I was in a dorm in Massachusetts. Gawd I’m old.

Anyway, taking the fact that people move, especially renters and gentrification. If neighborhood desirablity was the only factor a demographic shift would occur anyways, regardless of rise in rents. If every time a low income person moved, they were always replaced by a middle income person one may say it’s gentrification or something like it. Because over time as lower income folks move out and are not replaced by lower income people you’d have a great economic demographic change in say 10 years if the rate is say over 5%. Year one 100% Low income, Yr2 95%, Yr3 90%, Yr 5 80%, Yr 8 65%, in ten years there are only half of the low income people. Well, that’s using my math, and my math isn’t that good. Less than half may be there if the movement rate is taken just from the low income population. Possibly rates may change depending on the economy, unemployment in the area, lack of businesses and services, or what have you.

Yet even 10 years ago Shaw was not 100% low income. There were people who stuck through the riots and the crack years who were somewhere in the middle class sphere. Throw in high concentrations of middle class people in newly built condos, there is a major population shift right there.